The USA and the Middle East

From Pillars of Sand:

America used to be the essential trade partner for the Gulf countries, but this has now changed. In 2009, Saudi Arabia exported 57% of its 2009 crude oil to the Far East, and just 14% to the US. Responding to this underlying shift, King Abdullah has been pursuing a “look East” policy since 2005, resulting in trade worth more than $60 billion.

This eastward shift has made China a bigger trading partner than the US for both Qatar and the UAE. And almost a quarter of Qatar’s trade is with China, compared to just over 5% with the US. Likewise, 37% of the UAE’s trade is with China, India, and South Korea. To many Middle East states, what China wants is now just as important as US interests.

Bahrain is home to the Fifth Fleet and hopefully somehow we can keep that base open as it our eye on the Persian Gulf. But...

There's No Turning Back in the Middle East:

The central, underlying feature of the Middle East's crisis is a massive youth bulge. About 60% of the region's population is under 30. These millions of young people have aspirations that need to be fulfilled, and the regimes in place right now show little ability to do so. The protesters' demands have been dismissed by the regimes as being for Islamic fundamentalism or a product of Western interference. But plainly these are homegrown protests that have often made the West uneasy as they have shaken up old alliances. And what the protesters want in the first place is to be treated as citizens, not subjects. In a recent survey of Middle Eastern youth, the No. 1 wish of the young in nine countries was to live in a free country, although, to be sure, jobs and the desire to live in well-run, modern societies ranked very high as well.

The uprisings in the Middle east will probably eventually be co-opted by Islamicists. It would be nice if we could let go and let the Chinese handle the the Muslims. They might be able to put them in their place. It would also be nice to pull our troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan and concentrate on our immediate problems.

We've got a 1,000 mile "border" with Mexico. That's our real problem. There are two solutions. We could build an impenetrable wall and become a paranoid police state or - we could accept that Mexico will one day be the 51st state. Meanwhile both Mexico and Canada have all the oil that we need. So why not annex Canada also. It could be the 52nd state. That will probably happen anyway eventually. Lines in the sand are not real borders.